BUS552 How to Convert PPT to Video file on Windows 7

At CALMAT, professors sometimes asks us to post video presentations on YouTube. You can do so by using PPT and Windows Movie Maker. It takes a few steps on Windows XP. However, the same procedure cannot be applied on Windows 7.

Fortunately, the conversion on Windows7 was much simpler than the one on XP.
Only MS PowerPoint 2010 is necessary. (Windows Live Movie Maker was not needed at all!)
OS: Windows 7 (If XP, it's done in a different way)

 

1) Create PPT slides and add narration.
2) Save as "Windows Media Video."
3) Take a few minutes to create .wmv file. Just wait until it's done.
4) Upload .wmv file to YouTube (takes a few minutes)

Optionally, you can edit video or add background music using Windows Live Movie Maker. My point is, narration [deleted extra space] cannot be added through Live Movie Maker, so that [delete] you need to add it on PPT to create WMV file first.

 

- Narration volume can be adjusted by editing video menu through Live Movie Maker.
- Background music volume can be adjusted by editing music menu through Live Movie Maker.

• Note that YouTube supports the following format of video data to upload:

WebM
.MPEG4
.3GPP
.MOV
.AVI
.MPEGPS
.WMV
.FLV

• The file must be less then 15 minutes for free YouTube account 

It is up to you to create which format of the video file while here I would introduce you how to create .AVI file using a free screen capture tool for Windows.

1) Try downloading CamStudio: http://camstudio.org/

2) Launch CamStudio to capture a screen video
See this: http://youtu.be/QrfgciWI6PU

3) How to setup CamStudio to specify the directory to store the video file

See this: http://youtu.be/bdqEc1DiaWE

• The above method can be used to capture your Skype discussion as well.

• Secondary, I would recommend the following method for your PowerPoint presentation to put on the internet. (PowerPoint presentation only) http://ctcalmatmba.blogspot.com/2011/06/bus552-how-to-convert-ppt-to-video-file.html

Open Yale Lecture 11

Stocks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wj1GnT8xlj4&feature=BFa&list=EC8F7E2591EE283A2E

CLASS NOTES

Outstanding Share / You own shares è % ratio of owner ship

Split è (own shares) x split è To keep the value in a certain (reasonable) range i.e. $20-$40

Important Terms to understand:

·         Dilution

·         Dividend (Cash sent out to share holders)

·         Stock dividend è Not cash, no meaning for investors

For Profit Corporation exists for share holders (== make money for them)

Earnings per Share

Payout ratio = dividend/earning

Stock Repurchase

Liquidation/Sale of Co

Open Yale Lecture 10

Debt Markets: Term Structure

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJogkN8Ep80&list=EC8F7E2591EE283A2E&index=10&feature=plpp_video

CLASS NOTES

Keys: Interest rate, bonds, discount bonds, coupon, inflation index bonds

Discount bond

Principal $100

Price (you pay) $100 – discount

Treasury build

P = 100 - 99.58 = 2.510 x 60 /360 Discount rate

2.563 = (1/.9958 -1) x 366/60 Investment rate

Bills <= 1 year

Notes 1-10 years

Bonds 10+ years

Bonds

Coupon C

Principal 100

Pay C/2 every 6 months

P = c/2(1/(R/2 ) – 1/(1 + R/2) ^ 2 + 1/R/2 + 100 * 1/(1+R/2) ^2T

Term Structure

FMI) A yield curve displaying the relationship between spot rates of zero-coupon securities and their term to maturity.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/termstructure.asp#ixzz25Lv0P0nq

Price of time

Theory of Interest

Prof. Irving Fisher

Irving Fisher Diagram

Forward rate

1939 JR Hicks Invented

The forward rate is the future yield on a bond. It is calculated using the yield curve. 

Open Yale Lecture 8

Human Foibles, Fraud, Manipulation, and Regulation

CLASS NOTES:

Today’s topic was Regulation.

1.                Wishful thinking – i.e. Election, game, investment

2.                Attention Anomalies  - Social bases,

3.                Anchoring

4.                Representativeness Heuristic

5.                Gambling behavior

6.                Magical thinking   - BF Skinner

7.                Quasi Magical thinking  Shafir + Tversky

Temptations of Market

1.                Oversell

2.                Hide info

3.                Loyalty to friends

Regulation

Louis Brandeis

1914 Other people’s money

Disclosure of truth

ð  States “Blue Sky Laws”

1920s Telephone  spread

Boiler Rooms

1934 Securities  + Exchange Commission  (SEC)   

                        Business ßà SEC

William O Douglas

“Democracy and Finance” 1940  - Finance for people

Legal Realism

Public + Private Securities

Public Company à Must disclose info (Regulation by SEC.gov)  Edgar

Hedge Fund – Private investment company  -- Low profile

3C1

99 investors

Accredited investors

3C7

500 investors

Qualified purchasers

Insider + Outsider

Regulation FD - 2000 … Full Disclosure - SCC

Market Surveillance

Example

1995 IBM – Lotus … Insider trading

Financial Accounting regulation

Standard Board FASB - 1975

GAAP

Net Income

Operating income

Other Standards

Core earning

Pro form

EBITDA

Balance Sheet : Asset T Liabilities

Off-balance sheet accounting … Enron Corp

                … Remove risky investment from the balance sheet by putting them in balance sheet of child/dummy companies

SIV – Structured Investment Vehicles

SIPC

Securities Investor protection Corporation  - 1970

FDIC Fed Dep Ins Corp – 1934

Currently $100,000

Conclusion: Need to keep improving regulation to protect small investors.

Open Yale Lecture 7

Behavioral Finance: The Role of Psychology

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZLNbxWH8Lc&list=PL8F7E2591EE283A2E&index=7&feature=plpp_video

CLASS NOTES:

Newer revolution of finance

Behavioral finance = Reaction against to 1) Mathematical finance 2) Efficient market

Over confidence

Kahneman + Tversky

Prospect Theory  (1979)

How people make choices

Replaces Expected Utility Theory  

Weighting Function

Distort probability

Expected Util Theory çà Prospect Theory

Mental Compartment 

SUMMARY:

If coin is head – you get $200

If coin is tail – you pay $100

Probability 50% Gain > Loss

Would people buy the rotary ticket?

Today’s topic was behavioral finance.

The theory is replacing the previously presented theories such as 1) Math modeling of expected returns 2) Efficient market hypothesis – information based random algorithms

Behavioral finance theory in another word, prospect theory (Daniel Kahneman et all won Nobel Prize) claims that market behavior (decision making of buy-sell) is heavily incorporated with individual physiologic effect between returns and probability and then it can be modeled as a curve with a reference point. Figure 1 has the reference point in probability so the returns becomes flat after the point.

Cumulative prospect theory 

This is also by Kahneman. For the 2nd figure, buyers’ decision depends on prospect of probability/risk (individual feeling you might win or not) and return is not linear but discrete as shown.  The figure shows people seemed to over react for 2 extreme cases of probability but does not change reaction much for mid probabilities.

Open Yale Lecture 6

Efficient Markets vs. Excess Volatility

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXJb29s3nmY&list=PL8F7E2591EE283A2E&index=6&feature=plpp_video


CLASS NOTES:

Efficient Markets:

Harry Roberts (1967)

Market price incorporated with:

Weak Form – info on past prices

Semi Strong – all public info

Strong – all info 

Random Walk Theory 

Random Walk Theory for Stock Market  - Karl Person

  Xt = Xt-1 + Et

  Et : Noise

  News (about values) appeared randomly so it creates fluctuation （noise） --> stock price up/down as random walk

The First Order Auto-regressive Model 

y = a+bx+u

è Forecast of Stock Market 

SUMMARY:


First the class talked about what is efficient market. (Market is a price of something. For instance, stock price) There are some definition historically but one talked was by Harry Roberts (1967). The theory models the types of information and based on them, efficient market is classified to weak, semi strong, and strong. For example, "Strong efficiency" is depends on all information available. Normally stock market is semi-strong (means depending on public info) 

Next the class discussed prediction (of price behavior in the market) as a security. 2 algorithms (math formulas) such as Random walk and Auto regression, were introduced and these theories has been not  only applied for economics but also applied to predict any natural random phenomenon under study. However in my opinion, the application of these theory seemed to be difficult and as professor Shiller himself said, not many are succeeded. (If easy, too many rich people?) This was one of HW for Yale students and I thought it is really hard -_-);;

Open Yale Lecture 5

Insurance 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhLjCfjpYeY&list=PL8F7E2591EE283A2E&index=5&feature=plpp_video

CLASS NOTES:

Insurance = A risk management device ßà security

Equity Premium Puzzle

Puscott + Mehra

(positive) 4% premium (US)

Selection Bias

Stock Market disruption                               Russia + China

Corporate profit tax, personal income tax

Dividends 90% WWII

15%

Risk Pooling -à Independent  x: num of accidents n: policies p: prob of accidents

F(x) = binominal distribution

Mean(x/n) = p

Sigma(x/n) = Root{p(1-p)/n}

Normal Approximation

Bell shape curve

Probability theory

Insurance as Invention

Contract design

Risks and Exclusions (moral hazard and selection bias)

Mathematical model

Corporate or Mutual

Government regulation

                Reserves

Classifying of Insurance companies

Multiline / Mono-line

Property + casualty $1.4 Trillion

                Automobiles >> home owners

Health

Life $4.9 Trillion 

SUMMARY:

The concept of insurance was invented as early in 17C. Now a day the concept became very important to secure one's family and properties, but its growth has been very slow. The problem was mainly in early history, insurance companies could not sell their products to the customers (especially life insurance was rejected, was thought bad luck? Did not sound right, etc.). So historically insurance companies’ efforts were 1) how to convince customers in nice way 2) how to prevent from canceling. Eventually they developed more attractive policies such as the insurance with cash values. 

Open Yale Lecture 4

Portfolio Diversification and 

Supporting Financial Institutions

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efPKwxZuLKY&list=PL8F7E2591EE283A2E&index=4&feature=plpp_video 

CLASS NOTES: 

Portfolio can help hardship

Part of risk management

Math:

Capital asset and pricing model

Correction of assets = portfolio (à portfolio management)

Return vs. variance

n independent assets

Sigma = Std dev of return

r = expected return

Square root rule

Sigma_portfolio = sigma/square(n)

Equally Weighted

r_portfolio = r

Two Asset Case: n = 2 not independent

Asset1 r1= E(return1) Sigma1 = Std dev(return1)

Asset 2 r2 = E(return2) Sigma2 = Std dev(return2)

Cov(r1, r2) = Sigma12

X1 = in asset 1

1-X1 in asset 2

X2= 1-X1

Portfolio Exp return

r = SUM(xiri) = x1rx + x2r2 = x1r1+(1-x1)r2

x1 = (r-r2)/(r1-r2) 

Riskless asset

Sigma_f = 0: straight line

Tangency portfolio

The tangency portfolio combines the optimal combination of risky assets with a risk-free asset.

Mutual fund theorem

Capital asset pricing model

CAPm

Tobin, Sharpe, Lintner, Markowls

Assume everyone is rational, holds tangency portfolio.

Tangency portfolio = Actual market portfolio

r1=rf + Bi*(rm-rf)

rm: expected ret on market portfolio

SUMMARY:

Financial modeling has been researched and invented for part of risk management. The result from these equations can be useful information for decision making of investors whether they should invest. Efficient frontier (Harry Markowitz and others) which is a concept in modern portfolio theory has been explained mainly. The figure of Standard [Deviation vs Expected Returns] is explained. Top straight line of the hyperbola is called “efficient Frontier” and it has optimum returns for the investment under the given set of risks.

Open Yale Lecture 3

Technology and Invention in Finance

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nVRW8o7J0w&list=PL8F7E2591EE283A2E&index=3&feature=plpp_video

CLASS NOTES:

History of finance is copies of various invention (in the world) to manage long term risk

Need Invention

Long term risk theme (for risk management)

Backus Kchoe

(Perfect) Correlation of Consumption -> elimination of risk

Socialism – R. Owen

Moral hazard problem

(Complete) Sharing, risk sharing, equality  

Karl Marcus

ð  Public finance

Tax and welfare system (government) è Worked (Invention)

History of Taxes

Income Tax during civil war, progressive tax  (Invention)

Insurance (good invention)

Framing issue: Money Frame, money terms

Real Frame – Index to price

IT à economic dislocation and opportunities

Insurance Policy as invention, must exclude hazard cases to make it works

Develop statistics

Topics: Wheel, Patent (examples of innovation)

19C IT innovation for financial opportunity

Paper (mass-production) è record keeping

Carbon paper, typewriter, standardized forms, civil service, firms, postal service

Social security (Germany) over 100 years old

SUMMARY:

Historically human has been trying to find a way for (financial) risk management. The process went through trial-and-error. Ones very success are considered innovations which are for instance, tax and welfare, income tax, insurance, money framing, and social security. The financial system development were also closely related and depending on IT development in the era. (i.e. Paper->Carbon paper->Printing technology->Postal service-> etc. etc. -> Computers/Database so on)

Open Yale Lecture 2

The Universal Principle of Risk Management: Pooling and the Hedging of Risks

LINK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMkD8HKJQCM&list=PL8F7E2591EE283A2E&index=2&feature=plpp_video

SUMMARY


It is interesting that the concept of probability and statistic were appeared relatively late in the history, after 17 century. Today's class reviewed all principals in mathematics aspect. 1) Independent theory 2) Multiplication theory 3) Sampling/Geometric average 4) variance/co-variance 5) Gaussian distribution 6) PV


NOTES

1.     Historical introduction

Probability

1600 <

17 century

Probable …  trust worthy ness , in Shakespeare

Probability theory / sampling theory - Nala M.

Life table – insurance – ancient Rome

In Renaissance Italy – insurance policy started

Slow start of insurance in history  – due to no lack of probability concept, no clear meaning

Luck / Risk – the theory is away from this.

2.    Principals

P: Prob  0<= P <= 1  (basic)

·         Independent Theory

Independence  (Independent Event) 

·         Multiplication rule

P(A & B) = P(A) * P(B)

i.e. Fire in London

No risk of whole city burn down for insurance company

·         Binominal Distributor

F(x) = P^x (1-P) ^(n-x) n!/(n-x) !

# of accidents

·         Expected Value, Mean, Average

x : Random Variable

Population  E(x) = Myu x = (Sum i= 1-infinit) P(x-xi)xi

Average Sum(i=1-n) xi/n  

·         Sampling Ave.

·         G(x) = Geometric average  : multiply  all and ^1/n  -- Finance use to expect returns

  - lower number then E(x)

Experiment

E(x) = Myu x = Integral –infinit to + infinit f(x)x dx

Variance Sigma S^2 Standard Deviation

·         Population Variance Var(x) = Sum P(x-xi_(xi-u)^2

S(x)^2 = Sum (x-xbar)^2/n – Sample variance

·         Covariance (2 random variables)

C(x,y) = Sum (xi -xbar)(yi -ybar)/n

Negative / positive

Move differently / move together

Correlation

Corr -1 ~ <= P <= +1

P=Cov(x,y)/SxSy

·         Regression – Gauss

Y=Return on A Inc.

X= Return on MKT

Regression line

Alpha (Y(X0))  & Beta (slope)

A’s Performance  in the market

·         Normal Distribution – Gaussian distribution

Bell Shape Curve

Fat Tailed distribution = lots of returns

(+) Right tail / (-) Left tail

·         Present Values PV

·         Console or Perpetuity

• Annuity
• Utility function 

Bus595 Open Yale Lecture 1

Open Yale 1st Lecture by Professor Shiller

http://oyc.yale.edu/economics/econ-252-11/lecture-1

Introduction to the course

SUMMARY:

What is the purpose of finance? In general, people tend to think it is about how to make money. In a certain extent it is true. Professor Shiller repeatedly emphasized that it is not only making money but the technique/technology/method to make things happen in large scale, has power to change the world in better way. 


What are the elements of good finance people? They know how to make the things happen, have effects to the society, have a sense of philanthropy, and at last, are hard-working. These are the gifted talents not many people have.

My understanding is that finance is to keep the world and life normal, has power to make big things happen. However we must watch out “business without ethics”

NOTES:

• Basic / Undergraduate can take
• Market = Real world, practical, society, more general than trading
• Financial Market = structure, large scale, resource allocation, ventures, returns, managing risk
• Details: how thing work, make things happen (large scale), banking insurance securities, crisis, future
• US / World
• Open-Yale free class 2008/2011
• Need Mathematics but minimum
• Self-contained
• 6 TAs for this course (not for open Yale)
• Purpose: Do things to the world.  Finance = Fundamental of the sciety.  Not making money.  Technology to do things. Engineering. Social science aspects. 
• About textbooks
• Career oriented
• Finance among occupations
• Importance of Financial technique
• Forbs 400 richest people = … ‘0’ business
• Finance == Making things happen. Getting capital mass scale
• i.e. Andrew Carnegie == steel company, essay, 55+, business (make things happen)
• Elements of good business/finance people:  Practical  Hard working  Gifted
• Outlines for all lectures 

About bus 595 Special Topic: finantial market

Why I am taking this class and what I expect


Unlike other courses, this CALMAT course is utilizing one of the online courses so called Open Course Wave by Yale University. This will be a new case study for CALMAT in this semester. As I glanced the site briefly, they are many kinds of lectures in different fields of study in Yale Univ. I did not know that such courses can be taken by free in the internet.  CALMAT is really up-to-date in finding good things as the educator. The main reason I am taking this course is that it has been reviewed and  recommended by the CALMAT professor especially for MBA level students. The course must have a lot of  useful information to study. Also we will have the ULearn online forum so I would expect the study will have a certain degree of interaction among students then stimulating my mind regarding the topics. (-- not real time, but it is OK)

Open Course Wave – Yale University

http://oyc.yale.edu/courses

Course #: ECON 252 (2011)  

There are many other courses I might be interested anyway.

Android App Demo - My Grand -

Introduction 

•Learn how to allocate 2D graphic on the screen

•Learn how to integrate activities with Key stroke

•Learn how to integrate audio files to application

•Class name: MyGrand  inherits Activity

è Access to key pad, audio methods (utilities)

•Class name: KeyView inherits View

è allows access to all 2D methods

User Interface 

Key Definitions and 2D Interface

• MyGround-Activity OnKeyDown() method  is the handler
• When a Key pad (A-H) is pressed, it shades the location of the key in 2D.
• Piano Keys     Middle C-High C are mapped to: C,D,E,F,G,A,B,H

Audio Interface 

MyGround-Activity OnKeyDown() method  is the handler

When a Key pad (A-H) is pressed, it makes the sound of selection.

Successfully tested with the following format

•MP3

•MP4

•WAV (Windows XP)

Does not compatible with

•WMA(Windows7)

Need Recoding Software

•Sound Recorder (Windows accessories)

Future Enhancement Ideas

•Play list

Browse files on the handset

Upload the file on App

Register in play list and play

•Key extension

Support 67 keys

•Display music notes

(Chapter 15) International Strategies ~ The last chapter ~

Review 5 Values 

1. Access to new customers
2. Low cost of production
3. Develop new core competency
4. Leaning current core competency
5. Managing corporate risk

Review Risks

• Corporate risk

          - Liabilities and dangers - get more funding to take risk. What happen if revenue is not increasing?

• Financial risk

         - Exchange rate risk

• Country risk

         All local risks such as:
         - Local government
         - Natural disasters

MEMO:

- The country risk is a portrait of the economic and financial situation of a certain country, also showing the political stability and the historic performance in fulfilling its financial obligations.

- The two relevant risks for the Central Bank to set the level of the interest rate in an open economy are the currency and country risks.